Property News · April 5, 2016

Will ASEAN integration be a game-changer for the region’s property markets?


There’s strength in union
ASEAN single market is finally a reality
After years of anticipation and delay when it seemed it might never happen, the seventh largest single economic market in the world was inaugurated as 2015 drew its last breath.
Since it was first rubber-stamped the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) was obviously going to be a game-changer. With a combined population of 600 million and a total overall market value of around USD2.6 trillion, the 10 nations that comprise ASEAN represent a hugely significant economic engine.
Few things are clear cut in today’s global economic climate, however, and the leap into the unknown that is the AEC leaves plenty of unanswered questions – especially at this early stage. Unlike comparable entities like the European Union, the participating AEC nations will retain separate currencies and wildly varied policies on everything from property ownership to labour conditions and human rights. With no historic precedent and numerous factors at play, analysts and investors are scrambling to predict how it will affect property markets in both the short and long-term.
“The sheer size of the new economic zone helps to bring greater awareness of the region’s potential,” says Dr Chua Yang Liang, head of research for Southeast Asia at Jones Lang LaSalle.
A widely held view is that the AEC will boost progress of some of the region’s emerging economies where production costs remain highly competitive. “The rising cost of labour in China has helped make Southeast Asia look increasingly attractive for businesses and production,” he adds.
More: The winners and losers in ASEAN real estate in 2015
With international firms, especially from South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and China, looking to outsource manufacturing expected to take further advantage of highly competitive conditions in countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and The Philippines, real estate markets are also likely to benefit from the continued influx.
Here again, the different approaches taken by member countries to foreign ownership throw up a range of permutations. Property ownership laws vary widely throughout ASEAN nations, ranging from restriction-free Singapore all the way to Myanmar where foreign property ownership is, for the time being at least, illegal.
“Countries such as Myanmar, Indonesia and even Laos where there are tighter restrictions on foreign buyers have lots of potential but much of that remains untapped,” says Desmond Sim, head of research for Singapore & Southeast Asia at CBRE. “They are poised for growth when the political powers allow people to buy into the real estate market.”
Should these countries minimise regulations and expand training programmes, they could rise in economic stature in the coming years. The AEC will not force governments to revise property laws, but many analysts, including Sim and Liang, say that the economic pressure may force them to ease up. Vietnam, for example, recently allowed foreign investors to purchase real estate. Though the move predated the AEC, it is reasonable to assume that there will be similar legislation pushed through in other nations in the coming years.
Although a number of ASEAN nations do not have the potential to become production bases, Sim does not see this as a setback. “Each country will have to look to its own strengths,” he says, which, to the advantage of the community as a whole, are remarkably varied.
More: What to expect in real estate as the AEC era begins
Singapore, for instance, stands to gain from the influx of investment as one of the region’s key financial hubs. Meanwhile, the Philippines, with its skilled, predominantly English-speaking workforce, has consistently benefited from exporting labour to foreign markets and is likely to continue to do so within the AEC. After several decades of working abroad, many prosperous Filipino nationals are returning home to retire, boosting the local residential industry.
Of course, the AEC is unlikely to be a panacea for all economic woes. Mark Clifford, executive director of Asia Business Council, cautions that, “the region looks like it is entering a period of slower growth, especially the more export-oriented and outward-looking economies,” in response to struggling markets elsewhere in the world. The hope is that the AEC will be a bulwark against these uncertainties, but experts agree that the new entity will pose its own troublesome questions.
“There will be some negative consequences, as any open economy would face,” warns Dr Liang. “A possible increase in smuggling, and the dilution of local culture, trades and small businesses as they face stiffer competition from better managed foreign firms are all concerns.”
It is also possible that developers will overreach themselves in anticipation of an influx of foreign companies, Sim says, adding that any kind of demand may cause a rapid increase in supply, which can result in a glut.
Despite some misgivings about how the cards will fall, there’s no lack of optimism about how the future will unfold for the region’s property scene in the brave new world of the AEC.
“I think it will be a boon for most real estate sectors,” adds Sim. “What the AEC hopes to achieve is to make the whole economic region competitive.”
Although Asia may be known for its wealth of superstitions, neither fortune-tellers nor tarot cards can be relied upon to predict the future of the AEC with accuracy. Still stepped-up development, the potential for relaxed foreign ownership laws and a host of other knock on benefits such as major infrastructure projects, however, mean that the outlook is optimistic for real estate investors looking to grab a slice of the newly enlarged pie.

Source : property-report.com
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