{"id":400,"date":"2015-12-30T01:36:25","date_gmt":"2015-12-29T18:36:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.siamlandbank.com\/propertynews\/property-news\/predictions-for-2016-keep-calm-its-chaos-as-usual\/"},"modified":"2016-01-03T13:49:48","modified_gmt":"2016-01-03T06:49:48","slug":"predictions-for-2016-keep-calm-its-chaos-as-usual","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.siamlandbank.com\/propertynews\/property-news\/predictions-for-2016-keep-calm-its-chaos-as-usual\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictions for 2016: Keep calm, it’s chaos as usual"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\nMarket swings have become the norm as 2015 draws to a close. But this has not stopped us from indulging in some forecasting for a year ahead that promises to surprise investors and companies alike \u2013 such as the UK exiting the EU and oil reaching $100 again.Will 2016 be marked by rising interest rates, a wallowing oil price and a full-on recovery in Dubai\u2019s property market? Experts, commentators and analysts join The National\u2019s business team in our special look ahead at what the next 12 months might bring in financial and economic terms. A mix of the plausible, the unlikely and the downright humorous below:
\nSustainability a priority\u201cIn light of the major social, economic and political challenges that our world experienced in 2015, particularly across large parts of the Middle East and North Africa, I sincerely hope that 2016 will be the year in which achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth becomes an overriding and urgent priority for businesses, non-profits and governments alike.\u201dBadr Jafar, the chief executive of Crescent Enterprises and the founder of the Pearl Initiative
\nBritain leaves the EU\u201cDavid Cameron will call a referendum in the autumn and Britain will vote narrowly for Brexit, forcing him to resign.\u201dIvan Fallon, the author of Black Horse Ride: The Inside Story of Lloyds and the Banking Crisis, and the former business editor of The Sunday TimesBankruptcies\u201c1. A major energy-sector bankruptcy or restructuring. 2. Another GCC country beside the UAE goes big in solar.\u201d
\nRobin Mills, the head of consulting at Manaar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil CrisisYear of living on edge\u201cAnxiety and worries about the economic outlook and financial landscape both in the UAE and globally will rise but events will not unfold as feared allowing optimism to grow into 2017.\u201dMustafa Alrawi, The National\u2019s Business EditorCommodity weakness\u201cWith most of the developing world in an economic slowdown, IHS is forecasting prolonged weakness in commodity prices over the next decade. Prices for coal, iron ore and crude oil are all likely to remain depressed for the next few years.\u201d
\nFrom business-info group IHS\u2019s report on top trends that will affect maritime trade in 2016Internet spreads\u201cA key facet of the digital transformation revolution that is beginning to take shape in the region is the emergence of the Internet of Things (IoT) ecosystem, with IDC predicting that IoT-related investments in [the Middle East, Turkey and Africa] will create a market opportunity of US$7.03 billion in 2016.\u201d
\nFrom the tech consultancy IDC\u2019s FutureScape Predictions for the year aheadInternet will get greener\u201cThe internet will get greener in 2016, even as the number of global internet users reaches 50 per cent of the world\u2019s population. This continuous expansion of our digital lives requires massive amounts of electricity, particularly for the data centres that serve as catalysts of the digital economy. Operators of data centre know that has consequences in a fossil fuels-based economy, with 84 per cent of North American operators recently recognising a need to consider renewable energy for meeting future energy demands.
\n\u201cIn 2016, we\u2019ll see more enterprises adopt renewable energy principles. Companies that rely on electricity to supply power to critical internet infrastructure and maintain operational reliability will continue to reevaluate the energy efficiency of their data centres, adopt proven energy-saving techniques and evolve sustainability best practices.\u201dTony Bishop, VP Global Enterprise Strategy and Marketing, Equinix
\nTo peg or not to peg\u201cA depeg of the Saudi riyal is our number one Black Swan event for the global oil market in 2016, a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk.\u201d Bank ofAmerica strategists led by Francisco Blanch wrote in a November 19 report. \u201cIt is a lot easier politically to implement a modest supply cut at first than allow for a full-blown currency devaluation.\u201dBank of America looks for the outlier
\nDubai property price fall\u201cCluttons said that although the rate of house price declines is slowing, the amount of new stock coming on to the market continues to grow. Therefore, it expects prices to continue to fall by 3 to 5 per cent next year.\u201dFrom a November 25 report in our pages on Cluttons\u2019 outlook for the Dubai property market in 2016Cybercrime on the rise\u201c2016 will also see more players entering the world of cybercrime. The profitability of cyberattacks is indisputable and more people want a share of the spoils. As mercenaries enter the game, an elaborate outsourcing industry has risen to meet the demands for new malware and even entire operations. The latter gives rise to a new scheme of Access-as-a-Service, offering up access to already hacked targets to the highest bidder.\u201d
\nJuan Andr\u00e9s Guerrero-Saade, a senior security expert at the cybersecurity company Kaspersky Lab.Choppy seas\u201cThe choppy seas we foresaw in 2015 are likely to get choppier in 2016 \u2026 We forecast Japan GDP growth to slow further to 5.7 per cent in 2016. That would be its slowest pace since 1998, heightening the already non-trivial risk of credit crunches.\u201dNomura\u2019s chief economist for Asia ex-Japan Rob Subbaraman and his team weigh in on Asia
\nStronger but not strong\u201cThe world economy next year is shaping up to be stronger than in 2015 and roughly in line with long-term growth averages, according to the IMF and economists surveyed by Bloomberg. But \u201ca return to robust and synchronised global expansion remains elusive\u201d, the fund said in its October outlook.\u201dFrom Bloomberg Businessweek\u2019s cover story on the year aheadIt will all work out\u201cOK-ish\u201d
\nFrom that same Bloomberg story, Adair Turner, former chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority, boils the 2016 outlook down to its essenceUp and down year for oil\u201cCrude oil will trade both below $30 a barrel and above $60 in 2016.\u201d\u201cLogic and momentum suggest the first part of this bet is a no-brainer, with both Brent and WTI crude already having tested below $35 a barrel. The second part relies on history repeating itself insofar as when the bottom is reached, the rebound tends to be rapid.\u201d
\nClyde Russell, Reuters commodities columnistUS bound for recession\u201cA repeat of 2008-9. Oil climbs back to $150 and US enters recession and its banking system is once again on the brink of a collapse.\u201dSrinivasan Iyer, assistant business editor, The NationalBitcoin is backThe price of bitcoin could rise by 50 per cent next year from where it is now, it hit $500 in November, when the mining reward is halved \u2013 it is designed to be halved roughly every four years, to keep a lid on inflation, according to Daniel Masters, co-founder of Jersey-based Global Advisors\u2019 multimillion dollar bitcoin hedge fund. \u201cIf Opec came out tomorrow and said, \u2018in six months\u2019 time we\u2019re going to halve oil production\u2019, the oil price would instantaneously react. But the bitcoin market is still in its infancy, and I don\u2019t think that factor is discounted into the price fully,\u201d he told Reuters in December.
\nStay with equities\u201cWhile the new year tends to be a popular time to make changes, we believe that current economic climate will remain unchanged during Q1 2016, which supports our view that portfolios should continue to focus more on equities and away from the overpriced bond market.\u201dCommenting on its Q1 2016 Compass report, Vic Malik, the head of Global Investments and Solutions for Mena at Barclays Wealth and Investment Management
\nUS dollar volatility\u201cThere are reasons for optimism and also caution as we look to the year ahead. Volatility on the dollar will increase for the first half of the year, as nearly all Fed meetings will be seen as \u2018live\u2019 for the possibility of a rate increase. Dealing with such interest rate policy uncertainty on the dollar is something the market has not had to consider for seven years.\u201cInvestors will have to learn new skills to deal with this. It will be a good year for the dollar, but it won\u2019t be a runaway year as the Fed will struggle to deliver the four interest rate increases the Federal Open Market Committee had in their projections.\u201d
\nSimon Smith, the chief economist at FXProWishful thinking\u201cAfter North Korean hackers obliterate the internet, the world\u2019s newspapers enjoy profits on a scale not seen since Gutenberg was in little leather diapers. Raises, however, are not forthcoming.\u201dRob McKenzie, assistant business editor, The Nationalbusiness@thenational.aeFollow The National\u2019s Business section on Twitter
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\nSource : thenational.ae
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